500 simulated trading paths show realistic recovery timelines, blowout risk, and the math behind why deep drawdowns are so hard to escape.
A drawdown recovery calculator uses Monte Carlo simulation to model how long it realistically takes to recover from a trading loss based on your win rate, average win/loss, and drawdown depth.
Recovery time depends on your drawdown size, win rate, and average win/loss. A 20% drawdown with a positive edge might take 2-3 months. A 50% drawdown could take 6-12 months. Our Monte Carlo simulation runs 500 scenarios to give you realistic timelines.
A Monte Carlo simulation runs hundreds of randomized trading scenarios using your actual stats. Instead of showing one optimistic projection, it shows the range of likely outcomes — including worst-case scenarios.
Due to asymmetric math: a 25% loss requires a 33% gain to recover, but a 50% loss requires a 100% gain. As losses deepen, the required recovery percentage grows exponentially.
Blowout risk is the probability of hitting your drawdown limits before recovering. Our calculator simulates 500 trading paths and shows what percentage end in failure vs. successful recovery.
Prop firms typically enforce 5% daily and 10% overall drawdown limits. If you're already in a drawdown, you have less room for error. Our calculator shows how many consecutive losses would breach each limit.
Expected value is your average profit/loss per trade based on win rate and profit factor. Formula: (Win Rate × Avg Win) - (Loss Rate × Avg Loss). Positive EV means your strategy is profitable over many trades.
Focus on consistency, not aggression. Increasing risk to "make it back faster" usually leads to deeper drawdowns. Maintaining your edge with proper position sizing is the fastest path to recovery.
